Suggest OddsMartha Coakley, Scott Brown, and “The Kennedy Seat”
IStock Photo 3449174 © Robert Dodge
Today there is a special election being held in Massachusetts to fill the US Senate seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy until his death from brain cancer this past August.
Running for the seat are Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Martha Coakley. In recent days, this race has become increasingly tight, with national attention focused on the outcome, which could either provide the 60th vote for, or 41st vote against, healthcare reform.
Nate Silver, the master of meta-analysis of polling data, sees the data suggesting a GOP leaning, the way he characterizes a 60% to 80% chance of winning. It will surely be the most closely watched election today.
In their final debate before the election, Scott Brown was asked about the possibility of being elected to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat. He responded by saying, “It’s not the ‘Kennedy Seat’…it’s the people’s seat.”
This is true but some incumbents and some political names do have a special hold on their places in public life. For over 40 years the name Ted Kennedy was synonymous with the term “Massachusetts Senator,” and his life and time in Washington was marked by extraordinary odds, both good and bad.
The late senator lived a life which at every turn seemed tethered to fate. He was born in 1932, the baby of a family of 9 children. Five of the siblings had tragic fates: the oldest brother, Joseph, and Kathleen Kennedy were both killed in plane crashes—Joseph while flying a combat mission during World War II, and Kathleen 4 years later in a crash over France. Rosemary, the oldest daughter, was institutionalized following a lobotomy. Finally, there were the assassinations of brothers John in 1963 and Robert in 1968.
Kennedy himself was nearly killed in a 1964 plane crash which claimed the life of an aide. Five years later, he was responsible for the death of another aide, Mary Jo Kopechne, when he drove off a pier into the water off Cape Cod. In 2008, he was diagnosed with incurable brain cancer.
And tragedy was not limited to one generation. Ted’s son suffered bone cancer as a boy and endured the amputation of his right leg. His nephew, John Jr., was also killed in a plane crash in 1999. Another nephew was killed in a skiing accident, another died of a drug overdose, another was indicted for rape, a brother died in combat, a sister in a plane crash, another had a lobotomy, and his father suffered a stroke.
To have any one of these things in one lifetime would seem like long odds. To have them happen in one lifetime, within one family, almost defies belief.
Kennedy began his political career as the younger, lesser known brother of President John F. Kennedy and Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy who few thought would have a serious career as a United States Senator. He did have some pretty big shoes to fill, and when he was elected to his first term in the US Senate representing Massachusetts in 1962, he quickly got to work forming his own legacy, which, whether you share his politics or not, will undoubtedly go down in US Senate history.
In fact, the odds a US Senator will serve in the Senate for over 40 years are 1 in 305 (US, 1789-2009). Of the 2,140 total senators who have ever served in the US Senate since it began over 200 years ago, Ted Kennedy is one of only 7 men who have served the people of their state and their country for over 40 years.
On some of the most important and pressing issues of our time, Ted Kennedy was present in the US Senate. The odds a US Senator will cast 15,000 or more votes in his or her career are 1 in 535 (US, 1789-2009). Ted Kennedy is a proud member of the exclusive group of only 5 senators who have achieved those remarkable odds. Some of those 15,000 plus votes were on legislation concerning children’s healthcare, AmeriCorps, No Child Left Behind, and countless others.
Senator Kennedy led a tumultuous personal and political life at times, but history will write the final chapter in his legacy. With his death, the US Senate lost one of its longest serving and most storied members. After all, the odds a US Senator has served longer than Ted Kennedy are only 1 in 1,070 (US, 1789-2009).
Comments (7)
day traders do not move markets and i believe large institutional investors like state and corporate pension plans, endowments and mutual funds which invest on the behalf of many everyday working people see great upside in aligning their strategies with an economic environment that would maximize their inflows and therefore overall wealth.
report abuseand i would ask you to name 1 economic policy in the first year of this administration that has helped us recover, we are running on the fumes of a stimulus bill that was supposed to provide a bridge to economic recovery and its success has been marginal at the very best. giving a blank check to fannie and freddie and breaking contracts to bailout gm and chrysler while asking the banks to pay a fee to subsidize losses on their investments after many of these banks have paid back the loans with interest and have repurchased warrants to provide the government with a tidy profit (thanks to a plan hashed up in haste by the great Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson) while others who did not receive TARP financing (like MetLife, a bank holding company) will be subject to the tax as well.
this is a real economic problem and one cannot solely blame the president or the administration but the failed effort to use a little common sense to reform healthcare or financial regulation shows the true ineptitude of the democratic party who are so beholden to special interest (2 words, cadillac tax) that it becomes nearly impossible to rely on such politicians to govern this country effectively.
as for waiting to see positive GDP growth and correlate that with unemployment, i say such an exercise is academic and will not be accepted by the 22% of unemployed, underemployed and those who have become discouraged and given up searching for jobs. given that unemployment is a lagging indicator as was elucidated earlier on this discussion we should start seeing fundamental private sector changes in economic data that show business growth and job creation devoid of government stimulus but nearly all economic growth in the last few quarters is a result of federal stimulus and the threat of regulation, healthcare reform and tax hikes is killing any incentives small and medium sized businesses have to go out and hire new people in these uncertain times.
lets face it unilateral support for a party is almost as useless as not caring at all. ted kennedy might have done some great things but he reached across the aisle for things like "No Child Left Behind" for which Bush was vilified, yet nevertheless showed that Kennedy's true power was HIS wisdom not that of some greater political machine, and Martha Coakley is simply a talking head, a poor one at that who shows no passion or intellect and few can deny that.
It would be naive, especially in light of the past two years, to believe that the investment banks and day-traders who move the markets on a day-to-day basis represent, let alone are concerned with, the interests and will of the American people - Don't you think?
report abuseLet's wait until we've had a few quarters of positive GDP growth before we start citing the rate of change in unemployment as proof of a failed economic policy.
@JB24, i am well aware that unemployment lags but the persistence of poor employment and job creation data under the Obama administration leads me to believe that he might have something to do with it and with effective stimulus and tax incentives job creation could have began to show private sector growth under an administration willing to bring common sense into the equation. and if you still disagree the stock market might not be a greatest economic indicator but it certainly is an indicator of investor sentiment and today the major indices were up more than 1% led by healthcare stocks leading me to believe the people of America are voting and they are voting for Scott Brown. Not to mention, have you seen Martha Coakley, it's like no one is home, she is a robotic pawn for the Democratic Machine and couldn't even fill out initial financial disclosures properly which is probably the one thing her staff doesn't do. Scott Brown is a patriotic national guardsman who has served his state and country and knows that common sense will always prevail over the political machine.
report abuseWhile I agree that unemployment is generally thought of as a lagging economic indicator and that you cant blame Obama entirely, you must also consider other things he is doing or wants to do that are greatly hindering or will hinder job creation. Like the fact that it looks like Obama's tax policy moving forward will make it incredibly difficult for companies to create jobs as he wants to raise taxes. Or the fact that his health care bill does nothing to address the health care costs of small businesses in fact I am pretty sure it will make it more difficult for them to hire as the cost go up. His job creation policy seems to be moving towards socialize America and let the government employ everybody, which is not what this country is all about.
report abuse@nameyr29 unemployment is a lagging indicator. You won't see a big drop in the rate until well into the upswing in the business cycle. The current state of employment has nothing to do with President Obama.
report abuseI fail to see why everybody thinks this health care "reform" bill (that Coakley will vote for) is good for the US? Instead of spending more money we don't have lets craft a bill that costs nothing, reduces spending, increases competition, empowers the consumer, and incentivizes healthy decisions.
report abusescott brown has it right, it is the people's seat, and the lease joe kennedy bought for the family decades ago when jack first ran has expired. we recently elected a president who had the allure of kennedy camelot and who promised change we can believe in, yet all that has changed is that unemployment has increased, the deficit has increased and the threat of ridiculous taxes looms. so the famous luck of the kennedy legacy and their survival against all odds has finally run out, martha coakley is no kennedy and certainly does not share the family tradition of being tremendous orators. therefore elect scott brown for change we all can believe in and not another duck who will march in line with the democratic administration who is driving us down a dangerous path, scott brown might be the one man who can save our country.
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